David Parker, an Associate Professor of Political Science, lectured on why incumbent senators lose reelections, on Nov. 30 at the Bozeman Public Library.

“The interesting thing is not why incumbents win,” Parker said, “but why they lose.”
More than 80 percent of senators have won their reelections over the last three terms, but he wants to know why the other 20 percent lose.

Parker has been writing a book on the subject for the past three and a half years. He visited several archives from Alaska to Vermont for research. “The beauty of these archives is that you never know what you are going to find,” he said.

He looked at ads, polls and staff notes to try and decipher what was going on during these campaigns.

Typically, the incumbent senator has an advantage when they run for reelection, Parker explained. The first reelection campaign is often the most difficult — during their first six years, junior senators do not usually have accomplishments that matter to their constituency.

Parker’s research has shown that whether or not the senators have built a relationship with their constituency determines if they get reelected. The state of the economy or national trends seem not to matter as much.

Parker chose to research senate campaigns because they are more extensive, larger affairs than congressional races and state house races.

In Parker’s upcoming book, he contrasts senators who won or lost reelections under the same circumstances. He said it was hard to find reelected incumbents who had ethical issues. “People need to be able to trust their senators,” he said. “Without that trust, they are not going to be reelected.”