Bobcats eye third consecutive conference title

The MSU men’s basketball team faces an uphill battle in its attempt to win a third consecutive Big Sky Championship in Boise, Idaho. With a conference record of 9-9 this season, the ‘Cats have secured the fifth seed for the tournament and will play Monday, March 11, advancing directly to the third round. 

Familiar foe Weber State University will be waiting for MSU in Boise. For the past two years, Weber’s season has ended during the conference tournament at the hands of MSU. The two teams split the season series this year, with each team winning at home. Forward John Olmsted was a critical factor in MSU’s senior night victory over Weber, with a career high 15 points and timely defensive plays. 

If MSU advances past Weber, the most likely opponent is number one overall seed Eastern Washington, whom MSU also split the season series with. 

Regardless of the opponent, three things to watch the Bobcats navigate through the tournament are how they shoot and defend three-pointers, rebounding and performances at the end of close games.

MSU is a prolific shooting team from deep, pacing the conference in three-pointers made while being tied for second in three-point percentage. On the other end of the floor, MSU has pestered three-point shooters, sporting the second best opponent three-point percentage in the conference, according to the Big Sky Conference. This means the team is knocking down threes at a high rate while also running opposing teams off the three-point line or forcing them to take higher-difficulty shots.

With access to a full season of data and film, opponents are sure to make attempts to keep MSU off the three-point line in Boise. Forward Brandon Walker will have a chance to highlight his playmaking abilities as MSU seeks to collapse opposing defenses by getting the ball inside before passing it to shooters on the perimeter. Walker is the most likely candidate for the job of pulling in defenses as his 56.4% field goal percentage will probably draw two defenders each time he has the ball near or in the paint. 

More movement threes will also benefit MSU sharpshooter Tyler Patterson, who became the fourth player in Bobcat history to surpass 200 career threes. He will certainly be near the top of opposing teams’ scouting reports.

Rebounding has been a struggle for MSU throughout the regular season. If not addressed, it could very well be their undoing in the tournament. MSU is last in the conference in offensive rebounding and second-to-last in rebounding margin, meaning they are consistently beaten on the glass by opposing teams. Paired with a -0.1-point differential for the season, the margin for error is too slim for the Bobcats to give opponents second chances by not securing rebounds. Robert Ford III is third in the conference in rebounds per game with 7.7, but more Bobcats will need to crash the glass to give themselves the best chance of advancing in Boise.

Six of MSU’s conference games have been decided by five points or less, with MSU coming out on the losing end of five of those six matchups. Higher-intensity tournament games against top teams are sure to produce more close matchups, so MSU will have to find a way to flip the script and close out close games. Late game execution will be critical, and in those moments Head Coach Matt Logie has leaned on Ford III and forward Brian Goracke to initiate the offense. Eddie Turner III has also turned in a number of clutch performances in recent weeks, including 13 second-half points and a game-tying three against Eastern Washington on March 1.

With a full week to rest and prepare for tournament play, MSU has a chance to surprise many fans and pundits alike and secure the fifth Big Sky Championship in program history. If they pull it off, the team will also earn an automatic bid to the NCAA March Madness tournament for a third consecutive season. 

The Montana State women’s team also plays on Monday. The fourth-seeded Bobcats face Northern Colorado at 12 noon at Boise’s ICCU Center. The MSU men play at 5:30 P.M.