Putin puts the West on Edge

Russian President Vladimir Putin once said “Ukraine is the closest country to us. We have always said that Ukraine is our sister country and it is true.” Putin strongly believes that Ukraine should not be an independent state. Russia has become distinctly authoritarian in the Putin era, a situation not just highlighted by the country’s increased military presence on the Ukrainian border, but from so many previous actions under the Putin regime.

Why does Russia want to invade Ukraine? National identity is a key component in this. Russia and Ukraine have a lot in common and a shared history. Before 1991, both were a part of the Soviet Union (USSR). Ukraine is also a country with strategic importance when it comes to access to the Black Sea, significant trade routes and natural resources.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization also called NATO is an intergovernmental military alliance that guarantees the freedom and security of its members through political and military means. Its goal was mainly to counter the threat of post-war Russian expansion in Europe.

While NATO reiterates that it is purely a defensive organization, Russia claims NATO to be a military threat.  

Currently, Ukraine is not a NATO member, and in the past Russia has repeatedly demanded NATO not to issue its membership to Ukraine. NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg turned down Russia’s demand to deny Ukraine entry on Dec. 10 2021, stating that “NATO's relationship with Ukraine is going to be decided by the 30 NATO allies and Ukraine, no one else. We cannot accept that Russia is trying to re-establish a system where big powers like Russia have spheres of influence, where they can control or decide what other members can do."

But if Ukraine wants to be a member there is a possibility that Russia would respond aggressively. Germany very recently offered 5,000 military helmets for Ukraine to defend itself against a possible Russian invasion. Federal Minister of Defence of Germany, Christine Lambrecht, said that this planned delivery sends a “very clear signal” that Germany stands with Ukraine. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said “Five thousand helmets are an absolute joke.” While the U.S. and Great Britain aided Ukraine with military aid, Germany’s 5,000 helmets made many NATO allies speechless. The Kremlin deployed 100,000 Russian troops who are believed to be located at the Ukraine Russia border. According to The International Energy Agency, nearly 35% of Germany’s gas supply comes from Russia. If Russia shuts off the supply, it will not just hit the German economy, but during the winter, Germans will freeze to death. I believe this issue is a possible factor in Germany’s apologetic response to the whole escalation.

On Monday, Jan.31, President Joe Biden met with the ruling Emir of Qatar Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and expressed his intention to designate Qatar as a “major non-NATO ally.” The White House reported that the duo discussed “ensuring the stability of global energy supplies.''

This meeting signals the possibility that if Russia invades Ukraine, Europe and NATO might lean toward Middle Eastern gas reserves.  

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is scheduled to meet with President Biden on Monday, Feb. 7, and to discuss the Russian aggression over Ukraine. 

How could we be assured that there will be a Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022?

Looking at Russia’s past actions, they invaded Ukraine in 2014, when they quickly captured Simferopol and Sevastopol in the Crimean peninsula. Since this invasion, Putin has aimed to change the national security strategy of Ukraine but experienced repeated failure. One of the main objectives of the strategy is “Integration of Ukraine to the European Union and NATO.” In 2020, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy took further actions on developing NATO relationships and strengthening the national security strategy. This failure could also lead Putin to an invasion. 

Global leaders have already warned Putin that Russia could experience massive economic and political sanctions.

Rather than an invasion, according to my point of view, Putin is trying to threaten the West, Ukraine to give something valuable. It was evident from the statement he made on Tuesday, Feb.1, stating that “the fundamental Russian concerns were ignored.” His main concerns were security demands related to Ukraine. If the West concedes too many of Putin’s demands, there will be damage to the geopolitical strength of both these powers. Putin also understands China's interest in Kazakhstan. Currently both China and Russia work together in handling the violent unrest in Kazakhstan at the request of Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. As of now China has not shown any indication of unseating Russia from handling the unrest. If there is a Russian-Ukrainian war, then there is a possibility that China will tighten its relations with Kazakhstan, which would unseat Russia’s authority in Central Asia and in Kazakhstan.

Ukraine became a member of the United Nations in 1945, and in 1991 the newly-independent Ukraine retained its seat in the United Nations. At the U.N. Security Council session requested by the U.S. on Monday, Jan. 31, U.S. ambassador to U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield raised concerns over Ukraine-Russia tensions, and her Russian counterpart Vasily Nebenzia stated Russia has no plans of an invasion. “You are almost pulling for this,” Nebenzia said, pointing at Thomas-Greenfield. Nebenzia has a long history of disinterest in establishing the truth, which became evident in “Skripal poisoning,” in Salisbury, U.K. where Russia was accused of using “Novichok,” a deadly nerve agent against Sergei Skripal, a former double agent who worked for Russia and for the British intelligence agencies and his daughter. Traces of Novichok were found and identified by both British authorities and agents from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), but Nebenzia kept accusing U.K. and the allies for concocting the attack.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a telephone conversation on Tuesday, Feb. 1, with the minister of foreign relations of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov. Blinken recommended pulling the troops back, but Sergy has not indicated that the Kremlin will de-escalate from the border.

 Kristina Kvien, acting U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, stated that military aid is delivered to Kyiv. The U.S. should follow President Theodore Roosevelt’s advice here to “speak softly and carry a big stick,” meaning that the U.S. should go ahead and talk, but be prepared for serious action as Putin is a man of unpredictable nature.

From being a KGB spy to the President of Russia, Putin is a smart, strategic narcissist who plays a long game of resentment. He is 69 and well-disciplined, so he can continue to bedevil for another decade. European leaders need to decide how they want to manage this threat, and the U.S. should then decide if and how it will support them. The Kremlin’s actions need a global and strategic response.