The World Is Not Going to Burn

The early ‘70s ushered in a phenomenon called "population doomerism." In 1968, biologist Paul Erlich published "The Population Bomb." He warned that overpopulation would result in mass starvation and billions of deaths. A few years later, the Club of Rome's "The Limits to Growth" used early computer models to predict an unavoidable ecological collapse. Both books urged people to take measures as extreme as sterilization.

More than five decades later, these apocalyptic predictions have proven false. Population growth might have been a worthwhile issue to worry about, but all doomerism is counterproductive because it encourages people to panic or overreact rather than act. Today, a new type of doomerism grips our culture — climate doomerism.

In simplest terms, climate doomers claim that — due to human-caused global warming — many or all communities face destruction by drought, wildfire, flooding and powerful storms. Wildfires, in particular, are heralded as harbingers of climate change destruction, with a simple formula presented as:

Global warming brings increased temperatures, causing forests and grasslands to become drier, then increased weather events and lighting storms trigger more fires. The combination of dry fuel and violent weather results in increasingly destructive conflagrations.

The logic seems sound. More lightning plus more fuel plus more wind equals more fire. However, this view leaves out several important points. Forests are ecosystems that evolved with wildfire, according to the U.S. National Park Service. Lodgepole pine trees, for example, have hard, resinous pine cones which open when exposed to the high temperatures of a wildfire. A wildfire, then, creates just the conditions needed for lodgepole pine to thrive.

There is a caveat, however. When a forested area is not exposed to wildfire for a long period of time, large amounts of deadfall begin to accumulate on the forest floor. According to an article from the Journal of Environmental Management, when a wildfire inevitably does occur, the increased amounts of dry fuel result in more intense and destructive conflagrations, scorching the ecosystem.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture explains that these forest conditions largely occur due to poor forest management. Left unchecked, forests will burn on their own at regular intervals, clearing away old fuel and preparing the ecosystem for a new cycle.

For much of the 20th century, the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) tried to actively suppress all wildfires, using new industrial technology like chainsaws, bulldozers, helicopters and planes. Decades of this approach resulted in dangerous forest conditions in many areas.

Now, USFS has an unofficial “let it burn” policy in which they seek to intervene in wildfires only when lives or structures are at risk.

In addition to this, more people are moving to wildfire-prone areas, according to a 2022 study by the organization Frontiers in Human Dynamics. This means more people and structures have the potential to be affected by wildfire.

Frankly, if one lives in the forest or on the timberline, the potential danger of wildfire is always present. Such individuals would be wise to take precautions. They should clear timber and deadfall away from their home, use non-flammable roofing materials and have easy access to water on their property. They should also be in communication with their neighbors about fire prevention and response measures.

This reality is not indicative of an unstoppable climate apocalypse descending rapidly upon us, but the realities of living in the natural world. Every environment is prone to natural disasters of a certain kind, and there is no single solution. The proper response is community education and engagement, not panic and despair. To those afraid of increased fires in the future, I would say this: volunteer at the fire department.