Congressional Democrats ID Montana's Zinke-held western district as possible flip in 2026

The national organization tasked with electing Democrats to congress signaled Tuesday morning that they believe Montana's western congressional district could turn blue.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added Montana's western congressional district to its list of 44 congressional districts across the country that Democrats believe are within reach, but are either currently held by Republicans or are tight contests. There are 435 total congressional seats across the country.

The district is currently held by Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke who is running for a fifth term.

Flipping the U.S. House, with a slim Republican majority, to Democratic control tops the list of priorities for Democrats across the nation going into 2026. Democrats are focused on taking back control one of the chambers of Congress as a means to check Donald Trump's presidential power.

By adding MT-01 to the list, candidates will have access to fundraising opportunities, trainings, strategic guidance and organization support, a spokesperson for the DCCC explained.

The DCCC spokesperson said Tuesday the organization is so far not endorsing any of the four Democratic primary opponents who have lined up to challenge Zinke. The list incudes former smokejumper and lobbyist Sam Forstag; 2024 gubernatorial candidate and former firearm company executive Ryan Busse; veteran and Simms rancher Matt Rains; and St. Regis-based veteran Russell Cleveland.

“Montana can’t be bought by D.C. libs’ dark money," Heather Swift, Zinke's campaign manager said in a statement for this story. "It didn’t work in 24 and won’t work this year."

According to the Cook Political Report, Montana's western congressional district leans Republican by five points, but because of the Democratic strongholds, the site states that the district is "a potentially enticing pickup opportunity for Democrats."

In 2024, Zinke's race was also added to the DCCC's list of races they thought they could flip. Instead, Zinke won by a greater margin than he did in 2022.

The district was created following the 2020 census and it has only seen two elections, both of which were won by Zinke. He beat his two-time Democratic opponent Monica Tranel by eight points in 2024 and three points in 2022.

The DCCC is expanding this list as Democrats receive more favorable polling and the party "overperforms" in recent elections.

The DCCC is pointing to races where Democratic candidates are losing by slimmer margins compared to 2024 as well as elections where Democrats recently eked out surprising victories.

A Democrat recently won a reliably red state Senate district in Texas, while two Democrats in Georgia flipped Public Service Commission seats there.

Zinke, a former Navy SEAL, has maintained the ire of Democrats. He resigned from Congress during President Donald Trump’s first term to be secretary of the interior in 2017, but he stepped down from that position amid several federal investigations that Democrats have continued to hammer him on. He was ultimately re-elected to the U.S. House.

The press release on this announcement stated that the DCCC believes Zinke is vulnerable in part for "attacking affordable health care and hurting working families."

“Ryan Zinke embodies everything Montanans hate about Congress: a shady politician who cares more about lining his own pockets than fighting for hardworking families," DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in the press release. "The DCCC will spend the next nine months making sure that come November, Montana’s First Congressional District elects a representative that finally puts them first.”

MT-01 covers all of western Montana including Bozeman and Missoula, but snakes around to exclude Helena and does not extend as far as Great Falls.

The primary election is June 2 and the general election is Nov. 3.

Editor's note: This story was updated after publication to include comment from Zinke's campaign.