Election poll shows close races

The Treasure State 2020 pre-election poll, conducted by MSU’s Human Ecology Learning & Problem Solving (HELPS) Lab, was conducted by mail this year to poll for the 2020 elections from Montana residents. 8,836 surveys were delivered and 1,787 were returned for a response rate of 20.2%. The margin of error, which shows how many percentage points a result could be off by, is +/- 3.9%, with a response distribution of 50%. A 50% response distribution is the most conservative estimate because it does not assume an advantage for either party.  Funding came from over 100 individual donors through the MSU Alumni Foundation and from MSU.

Multiple races were within the margin of error, including the Montana senatorial race and the U.S. House of Representatives race. The poll shows support for Gov. Steve Bullock, D-MT, at 49%, incumbent Sen. Steve Daines, R-MT, at 47% and 3% of respondents remain undecided. 97% of registered Democrats support Bullock, while Daines is receiving 88% of Republicans’ support. 67% of independent voters said they preferred Bullock while 29% said they supported Daines.

As for the U.S. House race, candidate Matt Rosendale, R-MT, has 48% of support, Kathleen Williams, D-MT, has 46% of support and 5% of respondents are undecided. Williams has been able to capture more votes from her opposing party, with 8% of Republicans saying they intend to vote for her. Only 1% of Democrats intend to vote for Rosendale.

The race for governor had the widest spread of any of Montana’s races, with Rep. Greg Gianforte, R-MT, polling at 47%, a five-point lead over Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney, D-MT, who is polling at 42%. 7% of voters said they were still undecided. Rep. Gianforte’s Republican support is at 88% and Lt. Governor Cooney has 95% of Democrats’ support.

The presidential race shows Republican President Donald Trump leading his Democratic opposition Joe Biden by only seven points, respectively polling 51% to 44%. In the 2016 election, the race was much clearer, with Donald Trump winning by a 20 point margin over Democrat Hillary Clinton. The last time Montana’s electoral college votes went to a Democratic presidential candidate was in 1992, when the state gave its three votes to Bill Clinton in his run against Republican George H.W. Bush.

The Treasure State 2020 pre-election poll indicates that the races are going to be close. Due to this, voter turnout next week on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3 will be a key factor in determining who will win offices.