FIRST: Daines in command for US Senate in first poll featuring an independent

• Senator Daines is positioned to easily win re-election.
• There are variables at play that could make Bodner, if he chooses to run as an independent, a strong and viable candidate.
• The interesting part of this data is that the word “Democrat” doesn’t hurt Bodner significantly, but the word “Independent” doesn’t help him.
• In a split ticketed race, Sen. Daines beats his competition, but in a head to head, it becomes more competitive.
• Reilly Neill virtually no name recognition and low favorables.
• Bodner has low name recognition but his name is stronger in metro areas. His favorables are also low.
  • This is an early poll, name recognition numbers will improve between now and election day, but currently Sen. Daines is on track to win re-election.

MONTANA — A recent survey took a look at how Montana voters are feeling ahead of upcoming midterm elections.

American Pulse surveyed 607 likely voters from February 14 to February 18 to get insight into Montana's likely midterm election voters.

A large number of those who responded identify as Republican with responses fairly evenly spread out throughout the state.

When asked about the direction they felt about the direction Montana was heading in, 42.9% of voters answered they felt the state was heading in the right direction, with 36.6% saying it was going in the wrong direction.

For President Donald Trump, the poll shows that his favorability rating is currently 49.2% among Montanans surveyed. His Unfavorable rating is at 44.2%.

Trump won Montana by 58.4% in the 2024 election, Vice President Harris picked up 38.4%, with a margin of 120,173 votes between them.

He holds his strongest approval ratings in Great Falls at 42.1%, followed by Billings at 40.1%. Bute and Bozeman boast the lowest approval ratings at 23.4%.

If the election were held today between Sen. Daines, a Democrat and an independent candidate, Daines would win with 52% of the vote.

If the election were held today between Sen. Daines, and independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the race becomes more competitive, 51% to 42%.

“This poll seems to suggest what everyone already knows. Steve Daines is in a strong position and there is no appetite for a Democrat in disguise candidate like longtime Democrat Seth Bodnar,” Danielle Bradley, Campaign Manager for Sen. Daines told NonStop Local.

If Bodnar were to run as a Democrat he only loses 2% of his current margin.

If election were held today, would you vote:

If election were held today, would you vote:

If election were held today, would you vote:

If election were held today, would you vote:

On Seth Bodnar as both a Democrat and an independent candidate, polling showed his odds of unseating Daines were the best if he were to run as an independent.

Bodnar’s favorabilities were higher in Missoula and Bozeman, and most respondents in Billings reported never hearing of him while 5.5% reported a somewhat favorable opinion.

In Missoula, 50.4% responded said that they have never heard of him despite his tenure as President at the University of Montana.

NonStop Local reached out to a spokesperson for Bodnar, who is also not affiliated with the university, who said "no comment."

Via text Reilly Neill said:

"I’m on the ground in Montana growing a grassroots campaign. No political operatives work on my campaign and I don’t take corporate PAC dollars or dirty money. It’s clear I’m the candidate we can get behind. We don’t need spoilers. I’ve relied on hard work and engaging with folks on the ground for over a year, not slick D.C. consultants. My strength as a non-incumbent polling this high before the primary shows the value of my hard work and proof you have to reach every community in this state. 14 points is nothing for my team. Good luck, Daines."

Recently the DCCC announced they felt Montana’s Congressional District 1 was an achievable and vulnerable seat for Republicans that Democrats could win.

The first district data indicates that 43.3% of respondents Conservative, where 56.7% were moderate and 68.7% were progressive.

The district encompasses areas observed as historically blue, such as Butte, Missoula and Bozeman and conservative strongholds such as Whitefish and now Great Falls, which has slowly eroded from a liberal stronghold.

District 2 shows a 56.7% rate of conservatives responding with only 43% being moderate and 31% progressive.

Congressman Downing won the strongly conservative district with 66% of the vote.

American Pulse reports the survey boasts a margin of error of about 4%.

You can see more detailed survey results here.