The dreaded third surge

As October arrives and brings with it fall tidings, Montanans can typically look forward to seeing the changing colors of the leaves, cooling temperatures, football and the start of the holiday season. However, with all the pleasantries of fall also comes rather dire news. A third wave of COVID-19 is reported to be upon us.

Montana is currently experiencing a resurgence in cases across the state. On Saturday, Oct. 3, the state broke the 500-count for new daily cases with 501 cases reported. Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 complications continue to rise, with the total statewide count reaching 189 on Saturday, Oct. 3. In comparison, on Monday, Aug. 3, Montana had 69 active hospitalizations. Yellowstone, Flathead and Cascade counties have the highest number of active cases, according to the Montana Department of Health & Human Services, with Yellowstone County reporting 1,130 active cases.

The COVID-19 surveillance reports created by the Gallatin County Health Center show recent record daily highs and averages for cases. The average of weekly cases on Thursday, Oct. 1  was 26.8 cases per 100,000 people, a 54% increase from 17.4 cases per 100,000 people on Thursday, Sept. 24. By Friday, Oct. 2 there were 68 newly confirmed cases, 198 total active cases and eight current hospitalizations. Since the pandemic first surged in March, four people in Gallatin County have died and 1,714 people have been infected.

An important piece of data to observe when tracking the prevalence of COVID-19 is the percentage of positive test results in Gallatin County. On Wednesday, Sept. 30 the seven-day rolling average of positive tests reached 8.9%, an increase from 7.0% the week prior. Once the positivity rate goes above 10%, experts say there must be an increase in testing or else counties risk missing a significant number of cases in the community. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a positivity rate below 5% as criteria for businesses to reopen.

In Gallatin County, most reported cases are from people in the 20-29 year-old age group. The second most cases occur among 30-39 year-olds and the third most are in 10-19 year-olds. The 20-29 and 10-19 age groups have experienced the most rapid increase in the number of cases during this third surge of COVID-19.

The Gallatin County Health Center also keeps track of cases in students, staff and faculty at Montana State University. From Thursday, Sept. 17, to Thursday, Sept. 24 there were 66 new reported cases on campus. That number dropped in the following week to 43 new cases. Information about Gallatin County and MSU COVID-19 cases can be found athttps://www.healthygallatin.org/about-us/press-releases/.

While MSU prepares for the second half of the fall semester, the university continues to emphasize that students, staff and faculty should take the proper precautions to curb the spread of COVID-19. Students are urged to follow the CDC guidelines: wash your hands, use hand sanitizer, wear a mask, avoid gatherings of 10 or more people and actively follow social distancing guidelines at all times. As Gallatin County begins to see a rise in cases and hospitalizations, it remains evident that this pandemic is far from over.